GEOFF BENNETT: For analysis of the 2024 presidential campaign and how voters are reacting to the impeachment inquiry that House Republicans are launching, we turn to Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter and Kay Henderson of Radio Iowa and Iowa PBS.

It's great to see you both.

So, let's pick up where Laura left off in her report.

Donald Trump, the man who nominated three of the Supreme Court justices responsible for overturning Roe, now says that Republicans, in his words, speak very inarticulately about abortion, and he criticized those who push for abortion bans without exemptions.

What do you make of the message, Amy, and the messenger?

AMY WALTER, The Cook Political Report: Right.

I saw two things here.

One is, he was almost acting like a pundit, looking back at the 2022 elections and some of the ballot initiatives on abortion that had put forward and seeing how badly Republicans have done in the wake of Roe v. Wade being overturned, how abortion has really been an energizing issue for Democrats and has helped them do much better than anybody expected in the midterm elections.

I also see somebody who's looking past not just his past positions on this issue, but looking past the primary.

He's basically trying to set himself up for the general election.

And this question about whether this is the kind of issue that Republican voters are going to punish Donald Trump for taking a much more -- I mean, I don't kind of know where he ended up after that conversation.

He was a little bit here.

He's a little bit there.

But he did come out specifically and go after Ron DeSantis and say, six weeks is -- I can't remember the exact word.

GEOFF BENNETT: A terrible mistake.

AMY WALTER: Oh, a terrible mistake, yes.

GEOFF BENNETT: Terrible mistake is the phrase that he used.

AMY WALTER: Yes.

GEOFF BENNETT: So, Kay, you spoke to Governor DeSantis about that.

What was his response?

KAY HENDERSON, News Director, Radio Iowa: Well, basically, DeSantis is suggesting this puts Donald Trump's pro-life credentials in question.

And I would also add that Trump has had an ongoing sort of feud with Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds.

She is the most popular Republican in the state that's going to host the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses.

She also signed a six-week abortion ban this summer.

And he called it terrible.

GEOFF BENNETT: Amy, you mentioned the pivot that the former president is making from the primary to the general.

Is there a risk in doing that too early?

Or is he so far ahead that it doesn't make a difference?

AMY WALTER: Yes, he doesn't seem to be worried about this.

And what I thought was really interesting, I mean, Kay is sitting in Iowa, so it was there, but I was just reading reports of what was going on at the conference this weekend.

And so there was one woman there who they interviewed who to me sort of summed up how this issue plays with a lot of Republican voters who define themselves as pro-life, who may have told those pollsters, yes, I support a complete ban.

But when you ask them specifically, what do you think that really means, they kind of sound a little less certain of that.

She said, yes, abortion is my absolute number one issue.

And so the reporter followed up and said, OK, so how about a federal ban?

She said, well, I don't know.

I could go either way on it, right?

So I heard this in focus groups too in 2022 of Republicans who said, I consider myself pro-life, but I think we should have certain exceptions.

So I think the issue is maybe a little more muddled.

And Donald Trump is feeling confident enough in that and his lead that even in a state like Iowa, he thinks it's not going to catch up to him.

GEOFF BENNETT: Kay, in Iowa, the Republican Party, as you well know, it's driven and dominated by white evangelicals, evangelicals who are loyal to Donald Trump.

The question is why, especially when they have other options, like Mike Pence, who's known for his devout faith, has his roots in the conservative Christian movement.

Was his decision not to back Donald Trump's effort to overturn the election, is that a deciding, a real deciding factor for people?

KAY HENDERSON: It is.

Donald Trump is popular with Iowa Republicans, and Mike Pence is not popular with Donald Trump.

And back to Amy's point about Trump, I think Iowa Republicans in general see Trump as a man besieged with indictments, with critics.

And so they feel compelled to support him, especially evangelical Christians, who make the argument that they are out there being tarnished or targeted because of their religious beliefs.

And so they feel a kinship with Donald Trump in that regard.

AMY WALTER: I mean, the interesting thing too in watching him try to make this pivot is, OK, we need to win back some of those suburban voters, those women voters, those swing voters that we have lost, say, since the midterm elections over the issue of abortion.

But the challenge for Donald Trump isn't so much abortion.

It's Donald Trump and the many things that he has said and done, starting with January 6 and the indictments.

That is not going to be fixed for him in a general election by moderating on abortion.

GEOFF BENNETT: Let's talk about impeachment.

KAY HENDERSON: Yes.

GEOFF BENNETT: I'm sorry, go ahead, Kay.

KAY HENDERSON: Well, the other thing is, if you're out here talking to Iowa voters who are going to candidate events and seeing candidates who aren't Donald Trump, they are looking at other candidates, but when you ask them, who are you inclined to support at this moment, well, I'm a Trump supporter, but I'm holding my options open.

So that's just really telling of what control Donald Trump has on the nomination.

And here in Iowa, it's really Donald Trump's race to lose.

GEOFF BENNETT: That's interesting.

Shifting our focus back here to Washington, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy's decision to green-light this impeachment inquiry, it's drawing criticism from Democrats, obviously, but also some Republicans.

Ken Buck, who is a member, we should say, of the far right Freedom Caucus, he wrote an op-ed.

And he says that: "Trump's impeachment in 2019 was a disgrace to the Constitution and a disservice to Americans.

The GOP's reprise in 2023 is no better."

He says: "This is a flimsy excuse for impeachment."

What's the risk-reward matrix for Kevin McCarthy right now with this impeachment?

AMY WALTER: That's right.

So we know that his -- the risk is that he loses his conservative flank and -- on something like funding the government, which, by the way, it looks like he doesn't have right now anyway.

So this is going to be an ongoing fight.

I don't know that impeachment solves it.

The other risk is that those moderates -- Ken Buck doesn't fit into this category, but the moderate Republicans up this year have to take an uncomfortable vote on this issue.

But there's something else here, too, which is, somewhere in between, this is making this issue of Hunter Biden, questions about corruption, keeping that in the mix, and so that it muddies the water when we get into the general election.

Donald Trump has indictments and who knows what legal outcomes there will be.

And then there's also this, oh, well, there was all this stuff about Hunter Biden.

Whatever happened with that?

Now, it's hard to believe you can go through an inquiry and not end with an impeachment.

It's a very slippery slope.

But I think, for some of those Republicans, that is the ideal, is muddy the waters as much as possible without having to actually take a vote.

GEOFF BENNETT: Kay, is that strategy working among the Republicans you speak to in Iowa?

I mean, how is this issue resonating?

KAY HENDERSON: Well, among elected Republicans, the thing that they keep saying is, this is a fact-finding mission.

None of them say that at this point they're supporting impeachment or even expecting to vote on impeachment, number one.

Number two, among Iowa GOP prospective caucus-goers, this is just sort of, OK, go do it, because they have all been talking about Hunter Biden for months and months and months.

So this is not essentially big news for the rank and file.

GEOFF BENNETT: Kay Henderson, with a perspective for us this evening from Iowa, and Amy Walter, it's great to see you, as always.

Thank you both.

AMY WALTER: Thank you.

KAY HENDERSON: Great to be here.