
The economic impact of Trump's mass deportation promise
Clip: 10/31/2024 | 9m 21sVideo has Closed Captions
The potential economic impact of Trump's mass deportation promise
Immigration is a key issue of this campaign. Vice President Harris says if elected, she will pass a bipartisan bill strengthening border security. Former President Trump promises a much larger crackdown including mass deportations. Paul Solman examines the potential economic impact of deportations and Trump's claims that immigrants take jobs and lower wages for other Americans.
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Major corporate funding for the PBS News Hour is provided by BDO, BNSF, Consumer Cellular, American Cruise Lines, and Raymond James. Funding for the PBS NewsHour Weekend is provided by...

The economic impact of Trump's mass deportation promise
Clip: 10/31/2024 | 9m 21sVideo has Closed Captions
Immigration is a key issue of this campaign. Vice President Harris says if elected, she will pass a bipartisan bill strengthening border security. Former President Trump promises a much larger crackdown including mass deportations. Paul Solman examines the potential economic impact of deportations and Trump's claims that immigrants take jobs and lower wages for other Americans.
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Learn Moreabout PBS online sponsorshipAMNA NAWAZ: Immigration remains another key issue# in this campaign.
Vice President Harris says,## if elected, she will pass a bipartisan# bill strengthening border security.
Former President Trump promises a much larger# crackdown, including mass deportations.
One of the## key claims from Trump and others, that immigrants# committed disproportionate number of crimes,## has been disputed and contradicted by data.# But there's been an economic argument made by## the former president as well, that immigrants# take jobs and lower wages for other Americans.
Our economic correspondent, Paul# Solman, gave that a closer look.
DONALD TRUMP, Former President (R) and Current U.S. Presidential Candidate: An invasion of criminal migrants.
PAUL SOLMAN: For former President Donald# Trump, immigration has long been an obsession.
DONALD TRUMP: We are a dumping ground.# We are like a garbage can for the world.
PAUL SOLMAN: But Vice President Harris too# promises to crack down on illegal crossings.
KAMALA HARRIS, Vice President of the United States# (D) and U.S. Presidential Candidate: We will## pursue more severe.. PAUL SOLMAN: Fifty-five percent of Americans# say they favor reduced immigration amidst a## record number of illegal crossings late last# year, straining resources in several cities,## including here in New York, though# crossings have since plunged.
These are immigrants in the South Bronx# learning construction safety basis.## Almost all have asked for asylum and are in# legal limbo until their cases are resolved.
How many of you think you# will be working in two months?
What kind of work?
Well, Karmeen# Tavares came here years ago from## the Dominican Republic.
He says# he's done every job he could find.
KARMEEN TAVARES, Dominican Migrant: Construction,# electrician, carpenter, plumber, and locksmith.
PAUL SOLMAN: Wilbur Alva has# been here just one month.
WILBUR ALVA, Peruvian Migrant# (through translator): I go to## Home Depot.
A lot of migrants go to# look for construction jobs there.
PAUL SOLMAN: Alfonso Melendez endured the# nightmare trek from Venezuela through the## Darien Gap jungle to get to America with# his two young sons and wife, Bianney.
BIANNEY PACHECO, Venezuela Migrant# (through translator): We were robbed## just as we were exiting the jungle.# The ma.. stopped everybody crossing.
So it was in a# large group and they stole from everyone.## And those who didn't have anything to# give, at times there were young women,## pretty women there.
And these men just# took it upon themselves to rape them.
PAUL SOLMAN: Bianney and her# husband say they're forever scarred.
Knowing what now, would you do it again?
ALFONSO MELENDEZ, Venezuela Migrant# (through translator): No.
It's too## much psychologically.
Lots# of bodies riddled the path.
PAUL SOLMAN: Donald Trump also stresses# a more seemingly plausible dark side of## immigration, the immigrant's economic impact.
DONALD TRUMP: It's not just a crime.# Your jobs are being taken away too.
PAUL SOLMAN: Especially low-wage jobs,# says Steven Camarota, who has long## advocated for fewer immigrants.
STEVEN CAMAROTA, Center for Immigration# Studies: The vast majority of people## who do all the low-wage work in# the United States are U.S.-born.
PAUL SOLMAN: So key question, are immigrants# displacing American workers?
Well,## almost any employer will tell you how hard# it is to find reliable workers these days.
JUAN PABLO MORALES, Catholic Charities: Most# of the people that are coming are in working## age.
They're going to do the jobs that I# don't want to do, you don't want to do,## nobody else wants to do and we're not doing.
PAUL SOLMAN: When Juan Pablo Morales, the program## coordinator here, came from Guatemala 14# years ago, he too started at the bottom.
JUAN PABLO MORALES: I was putting floors.
I was# teaching English, cutting hair, killing rats.
PAUL SOLMAN: Killing rats?
(LAUGHTER) JUAN PABLO MORALES: Absolutely.
PAUL SOLMAN: How do you kill rats?
JUAN PABLO MORALES: I have some friends that have# Jack terriers, a.. and hunt rats in vacant lots of New York City.
And# would we get paid just to walk around and do that.
PAUL SOLMAN: Karmeen Tavares says immigrants# have to take whatever job they can get.
KARMEEN TAVARES (through translator): They# have to take any opportunity available,## because they have to provide for# themselves and for the people they're with,## and they don't have access to health# care.
They don't have any assistance.
PAUL SOLMAN: Twenty-hour miles west,## Janelle Baker runs a ranch in rural Eastern# Nevada.
Her father has a dairy .. What's your reaction when you hear that# immigrants are taking jobs from Americans?
JANELLE BAKER (Baker Ranches): I think it's dumb.
PAUL SOLMAN: Dumb?
Yes.
JANELLE BAKER: It's uninformed.
They're not taking# your job.
You don't want it... do it.
If you want to, you would be applying# when we advertise.
My dad wouldn't be looking## for milkers all the time.
Nearly everyone we# know in agriculture is looking for someone.
PAUL SOLMAN: Case in point, for years,# Baker has posted an irrigation job.
JANELLE BAKER: We had a# couple of people that said:## "My son would like a job."
I never heard# from them.
Another time, we had someone## call, say they were interested and# they never showed up.
This year,## we had someone looked at the requirements# of the job and decided they didn't want to## do it.
But he was the only person to actually# show up and talk to my husband about the job.
PAUL SOLMAN: OK, but what about the recent wave of## immigrants?
Can the economy# really absorb all of them?
JUAN PABLO MORALES: New York City is a vacuum of# jobs, especially in the construction industry.## There is a job for anybody that wants to work,# especially if you're willing to do anything.
PAUL SOLMAN: Jobs that native-born# Americans don't or won't do?
STEVEN CAMAROTA: It would be wrong to# say there are jobs that Americans simply## don't do.
If two-thirds of construction# laborers, based on the American Community## Survey, are U.S.-born, you can't say no# American does that job or is interested.
PAUL SOLMAN: And here's a crucial point,## says Steven Camarota.
Immigrants depress# wages below what m.. STEVEN CAMAROTA: If you increase the supply# of anything, in this case labor or workers,## you tend to lower its price.
If# a job is very heavily immigrant,## then that is likely an area where immigration# has significantly pushed down wages.
And some of those jobs are really unpleasant,## like construction labor.
So you would want# wages to be relatively high there, and one## of the things immigration does is tends to hold# down wages, making the occupation less attractive.
PAUL SOLMAN: But Karmeen Tavares# says there are construction jobs## American workers won't do even for high pay.
KARMEEN TAVARES: I see the people you pay# $50 something and work in the construction,## and sometimes don't work.
I see that with my eyes.
PAUL SOLMAN: Juan Pablo Morales, long# since an American citizen, sympathizes.
JUAN PABLO MORALES: There's a lot of# jobs that I had to do.
If I'm not in## a spot in my life again where# I have to, I won't.
I won't.
PAUL SOLMAN: Business school# Professor Zeke Hernandez.
ZEKE HERNANDEZ, The Wharton School, University# of Pennsylvania: We have very clear evidence that## native-born young men and women will simply# not do those jobs.
They will not ta.. even during times of very high unemployment.
PAUL SOLMAN: But, argues Camarota,# if fewer immigrants mean higher wages## then maybe Americans will take the# jobs, especially less educated men.
STEVEN CAMAROTA: The share of# men not in the labor force,## that is neither working nor looking# for work, is about triple what it## was in 1960.
And it's nearly double what# it was even 20, 25 years ago.
As long as## we have a supply of eager immigrants, we# are never going to address this problem.
PAUL SOLMAN: And think of all the available jobs# were Donald Trump to deliver on his campaign vow.
DONALD TRUMP: We're going to get these people# out.
We're going to deport them so rapidly.
PAUL SOLMAN: That would cost all of# us, says economist Giovanni Peri.
GIOVANNI PERI, University of California, Davis:# The income that this undocumented generating## in the U.S. is about 3.5 percent of the U.S.# GDP, so on the order of $1 trillion per year.
Plus, you will have all the cost of running# this operation that will also be huge.
From a## pure economic point of view, massive cost.# Some sectors will have huge disruption.
PAUL SOLMAN: What would happen to# American agriculture, let's say?
JANELLE BAKER: So I think you would tank# it in our area.
If you were to pull out## all of the immigrants, documented and# undocumented, it would devastate our area.
JUAN PABLO MORALES: Here in New York,construction# never stops.
Who's doing that construction?
Tim Driscoll runs the bricklayers union.
TIMOTHY DRISCOLL, President, International Union# of Bricklayers and Allied Craftworkers: I don't## believe the industry.. PAUL SOLMAN: And besides, says Driscoll: TIMOTHY DRISCOLL: The only way there .. this country was when the pandemic# hit and employment opportunities## ceased to exist and the reason that a lot# of folks were attracted here disappeared.
We had the four-year experiment# of self-deportation.
It failed.
PAUL SOLMAN: Just so, says Professor Hernandez.
ZEKE HERNANDEZ: There's a study that came out# recently showing that the biggest predictor of## illegal border crossings is unfilled job openings# in the United States.
We need these people.
PAUL SOLMAN: And, at the moment,# at least, we certainly seem to.
For the "PBS News Hour," Paul Solman in the Bronx.
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